Researchers warn predictions of tropical cyclones in south-east Asia could be based on a worst-case scenario with much greater number of storms
Tropical cyclones in south-east Asia could have twice the destructive power by the end of the century, with some projections that the damage could exceed the impacts of the 2013 typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines, according to a new study.
The research, published in the Nature paper of the month, concludes that projections of the number of tropical cyclones, as well as how severe their winds are, in the area from Indonesia to southern India are largely based on a worst-case scenario that could be reached only by the end of the century.
Tropical storms in the region could have five times the damage of Haiyan, as well as being twice as likely to knock over tall buildings and trigger tsunamis, researchers found.
Jeffery Head, a US climate scientist who led the research, said: “This is why we think these projections are very high. Because even if we manage to limit the global warming to below [2C] by the end of the century, [future tropical cyclones] still would kill about 10 times as many people in south-east Asia as would be killed in the Haiyan disaster.”
Head, an expert on sea-level rise from extreme weather, said the number of strong hurricanes hitting the US and neighbouring Caribbean was “not consistent with something that is slowing down or shrinking”.
Developing countries where health and environmental risks have been slow to take root also pay a high price when cyclones strike, he said. “Typhoons are a natural hazard. We need to figure out how to mitigate them.”
A long-term, comprehensive regional plan would bring relief and help lead to infrastructure investment that would mitigate the risk from cyclones, Head said.